As of this writing, here’s where I see this race: between Arabo and Sherard for the Democratic nomination.
Arabo
Say what you will about him. The fact is that he can put together a campaign. His people have been walking for over six months now and his signs are everywhere. Compared to the others, he has a solid shot.
Sherard
Were it not for Sherard. There is a Republican business IE that has about 30 walkers getting $16/hour canvassing and reinforcing her already high name ID. Sherard’s campaign hasn't done much because they’re broke. Oddly and through no effort of her own, she too has a solid shot.
Block
What will it take for Sacramento to wake up and stop going the Vince Hall-lite route? He has the institutional advantages. But he never walks. He campaign has only recently sprung into high gear and it screams too little too late. With IE’s and Arabo targeting similar universes, Marty loses out due to Arabo’s sign reinforcement of his name.
Ricasa
My heart goes out to her only because she has the best community profile of these candidates. She can still squeak through but only if her people are running a massive behind-the scenes operation. Not being privy to it, and only seeing a few of her sighs up, I’m counting her out of this one
How this turns out is anyone’s guess. The Republicans think Sherard is the weakest candidate and it makes sense they’d do what they could to help her. Were it not for Arabo, they might get away with it. Block could go balls out this upcoming weekend and kick up the percentage but I don’t think it will be enough And Ricasa is still viable for something else.
Shots anyone?
Marty is a great guy and would be a smart legislator ... if only we had the wherewithal to clear the field like the GOP.
ReplyDeleteIf Maxine make it because of this IE, I'll join you in taking a shot. She's the last person we need as a standard-bearer.
ReplyDeleteRepublicans are funding Maxine's campaign because polling is showing her neck-and-neck with Block. Arabo's a distant third. Block would beat McCann, Maxine would lose. Arabo would lose. True it's somewhat a tossup, but I'd give the edge to Marty and hope that he wins it if the Dems are to re-take this seat!
ReplyDeleteI'd like to believe the polling, but, like Socartes, I only see Arabo signs and volunteers out.
ReplyDeleteCan someone post this poll that has Marty over Auday?
ReplyDeleteha ha auday, no posting polls for you.
ReplyDeleteI think Arabo takes it. He has busted his ass in rehabilitating his image, and campaigning. He won the endorsement of the SDCYD by showing up and making friends well before the campaign began.
ReplyDeleteNow, the real question is why the hell didn't Tony Young run for the seat?
Rony Rung?
ReplyDeleteThey're all working their ass off, except Maxine. She hasn't lost an inch!
ReplyDeleteArabo rehabilitated his image? Rehabilitated it right into the trashcan, you mean. Two years ago a nobody and now a carpetbagger, a party switcher, loathed from the left and the right, slave to the alcohol and tobacco industries - he's slimier than the big oil money he takes.
ReplyDeleteIf Block doesn't win next week, then I'll spring for a round at the bar.
ReplyDeletewatch the mailers. Its a clear sign that the candidates arent worried about Auday since there havent been any real hit pieces on the guy. The fact that the real hits that we all know about havent come out are a bad sign for Auday. That means that polling is showing that he is not the one to worry about. I live in the district...the signs are normal. They are not "everywhere". Prediction: Maxine and Block in a dead heat with Arabo lagging in third.
ReplyDeleteGreat...an anonymous blogger is going to buy us all drinks...thanks.
ReplyDeleteSo, my earlier comment was cesured for talking about Auday being a big wig in the Republican party and an active member of the Young Republicans. I though "progressives" believed in free speech? Is that not a relevant comment to this discussion? Considering another blogger touted Auday's endorsment from the Young Democrates? Come on!
ReplyDeleteI think Auday wanted to be a big-wig in the Republican Party. It didn't work so here we are. It all looks to be self-serving.
ReplyDeleteShame on Marty Block for his attacks on fellow Dems. I think he could have had a chance if he would have kept it clean. He lost my vote and my family's vote.
ReplyDeleteAt least Marty has been active in the community. What has Auday done other than collect checks and party switch when the wind shifted?
ReplyDeleteIf Sherard wins I'll buy two rounds! Hell, we'll need to get drunk.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone see that "Money on the doorstep" hit piece against Block? Call me crazy but I think it came from Auday's camp. Who else could afford to mail this late? Hypocrisy at its best.
ReplyDeleteFirst...Let's get the record straight.. Have u checked your mailbox today? If you did you would have found two additional hit pieces, in addition to the other five issued early on. His opponents however do fzgadnot underestimate his capabilities, otherwise they wouldn't have felt forced to resort to attacks ranging from mistruths to outright lies.
ReplyDelete"Shame on Marty Block for his attacks on fellow Dems. I think he could have had a chance if he would have kept it clean. He lost my vote and my family's vote."
ReplyDeleteWow, that's a Republican post if ever there was one.
good thoughts.
ReplyDelete