Tuesday, January 31, 2012

City Council by the Numbers!

Here is the breakdown of the City Council 2012 races, which reported by 9:44 pm on Tuesday, Jan 31, 2012:

District 1
Ray Ellis
Total Contributions Received: $151,105.00

Total Expenditures Made: $47,948.59

Burn Rate 31.73%

NOTES: This is without any loans by a person with the financial means to put their own money into the race. Very impressive. However, we need to remember money has not equated to a win for candidates, especially those challenging an incumbent at the city level. Ray will have a tough road to defend his support for Prop D to his conservative base and his pension settlement vote to the general public.

Sherri Lightner
Total Contributions Received: $117,808.00
Total Expenditures Made: $47,720.54
Burn Rate 40.51%
NOTES: This is a very good report for Sherri in a normal period. Looking at previous reports of incumbents this number is par for the course. Also, she will have her incumbency to lift her up even more. In addition, talk is she will be a hard person for the opposition to lock down as favoring any certain interest group. She has shown an independent streak, which did very well for Scott Peters, when he was challenged from the right by a wealthy individual too.

District 3
Todd Gloria
Total Contributions Received: $127,903.65
Total Expenditures Made: $51,241.01
Burn Rate 40.06%
NOTES: There is no challenger and anyone that would get into the race would be behind the money, even if they self finance their race. In addition, incumbency has its power for city council races.

District 5
Mark Kersey
Total Contributions Received: $120,229.00
Total Expenditures Made: $41,219.02
Burn Rate 34.28%
NOTES: There is no challenger and anyone that would get into the race, except for a self financing candidate that is conservative, then there would not be a steep fundraising climb ahead.

District 7
Mat Kostrinsky
Total Contributions Received: $76,106.00
Total Expenditures Made: $20,106.89
Burn Rate 26.42%
NOTES: Several items jumped out at me in this report from Mat. He has the lowest burn rate of the entire field of candidates running for city council, including those without an opponent. If you look into his report he has more cash on hand then Scott and he should be taken serious looking that he went into this race with a sizable early loan. Though, this race will be expensive without name ID and require a more heavier fundraising number reported at the next period.

Scott Sherman
Total Contributions Received: $61,890.00
Total Expenditures Made: $37,469.35
Burn Rate 60.54%
NOTES: Scott's numbers were released a few weeks ago, so the number are not new, but the amount he has spent is very surprising with most not going towards voter ID, but consultant fees and fundraiser fees. A little high for someone claiming to be a business person. If he runs his business or will run his council office like he is running his campaign, then we should look at what business model he uses. We should expect with the recent court ruling and this report the Republican Party has already started to prop Scott's campaign up with party money going into his campaign.

District 9

Marti Emerald
Total Contributions Received: $70,399.25
Total Expenditures Made: $30,449.88
Burn Rate 43.25%
NOTES: There is no challenger and anyone that would get into the race, except for a self financing candidate, then would have a steep fundraising climb ahead. Though, they would need to add incumbency, which makes this a lock for Emerald to win election.