Friday, April 17, 2009

CA Gov Race – April 09

With Garamendi running for Congress, let’s look at where the top contenders are:


NEWSOM
He’s been here and in every other major media market in the state pumping up his name ID and earning chits among the local activists for showing up. But it is very early and it remains to be seen if he can transfer this early momentum into something real when the other candidates turn on their campaigns.

VILLARAIGOSA
Like the mayor from the other city in California, Los Angeles. (Funny how most people from the East Coast know of SF or LA but don’t pay too much, if any, respect to SD unless you’re talking about the zoo) Having secured re-election in a yawner of a race, Villaraigosa is starting to talk the talk of a gubernatorial wanna-be. When he throws his hat in, expect labor to fall in behind him and for the Sacramento machine to begin shoveling coals into the furnace on his behalf. And don’t discount the voter surge that a Latino candidate will bring with him.

O’CONNEL
Haven’t heard if he is still in or leaning out. I guess we’ll see at the State Party Convention.

BROWN
He’s in it and ready to teach the youngling from SF what’s what. The Hillary – Obama comparison looks to be real and Jerry is not going to let this slide. All he has to do is utter the magic words that he is running and his supporters shall materialize. He doesn’t have Newsom’s looks nor Antonio’s take-no-prisoners attitude but he does have legions who will move mountains for him.

THEREFORE:
I think the primary becomes a Brown - Villaraigosa death match. Neither of them have had to fight for election in a long time and this war could be the shot that the doctor has been harassing Sacramento to take for decades. Gavin can get in if he pulls the new Obama voters on board but it is too early to determine if they want to get on the SS Newsom. Both Newsom and Brown have rabid followings while Villaraigosa’s support is soft in comparison.

All things considered, this is going to be a fascinating race.

11 comments:

Karl Forston said...

I think the race will be fascinating. All Three men have huge strength and name recognition coming in. The republicans have no one on their bench even close at this time.

Anonymous said...

I second that. The Republicans can't match any of these three right now.

Karl Forston said...

Each of our guys has to be thinking about what will be the biggest problem the state will be facing in 2010. Whoever forecasts this correctly will separate themselves from the other two.

Karl Forston said...

Nopw with Garamendi making it official this officially becomes a crowded field.

Karl Forston said...

Now to begin Handicapping. Jerry Brown is definitely staying in the news. This will serve him well as he shows his experience in action.

Karl Forston said...

Villagrosa will need help expanding his base. This is key for him.

Karl Forston said...

Newsome is showing signs of moving to the center. I have talked to many activists who were a little surprised at his gentle handling of Miss California. But this may play well with moderates. All in all what a field.

Anonymous said...

What a field is description of these guys. I think any of them could whip the Republicans.

Karl Forston said...

I agree wholeheartedly.

Karl Forston said...

Garamendi I believe will have a long uphill battle with the big 3. It would not surprise to see him pass Fabian though quickly. Things are not going well for his family and friends and that will have an effect.

karlforston said...

Sorry I meant Antonio. His problems are somewhat self inflicted and that whole cabal of Antonio,Fabian and Hueso looks like it's going to have more problems.