Monday, May 31, 2010

One week left: Predictions

Things always change the last week before the election. Today, this is where I see things:

San Diego City Council District 2 & 4 - Yawn
Faulconer and Young win. Finucane becomes the front-runner four years from now in D2.

San Diego City Council District 6 - Popcorn!
The egos of Kvaric and Sudberry have chained them to the flawed candidacy of Zapf. Thanks to the "gift" of $20K from the SD Republican Party, the Lincoln Club's oversized hit pieces and this being a Republican leaning primary, in spite of the candidate, Zapf gets dragged across the finish line into the runoff.

Wayne makes the runoff to take out face Zapf. With Labor focused in Chula Vista and the local Dem party tilting at the windmill that is the 4th Supervisorial seat, Wayne gets in the old-fashioned way; he worked at it. His relentless campaign should grab enough of the electorate to make it.

Hadley has the Donna-heads on his side but that's it. They will deny Wayne the outright win but will make it easier for him to unify the party in the fall. Hadley's natural volunteer base has fled for Whitburn and, as of this writing, his campaign has not shown much of a pulse since their SDSU interns graduated.

Tran has loaned herself $20K but it remains to be seen how she will apply this to campaign (more signs?). This is her best chance to make the runoff: five candidates and a wounded Republican frontrunner reduce the number of votes needed. It could happen.

Huckabone may receive more than single digits. He has been quiet during the Zapf brouhaha which implies that he is being the good soldier for a future shot at office. Keep your eye on this guy. With some direction and money, he could be dangerous.

San Diego City Council District 8 - Kettlecorn!

D8 is the the kind of place where the total votes garnered by the 3rd or 4th place finisher in D6 could win outright due to the low turnout numbers. Polls have been done showing Inzunza with a solid lead but his runoff opponent remains unknown. One poll has BD Howard as number two and in another it's Alvarez. UFCW launched a hit on BD but it may result in elevating Nick to an outright victory. With Felipe and Ben Hueso sharing resources and people, it appears unlikely that any prediction for the second spot can be credible.

What I will say is that he who has the better ground game will win.

State Assembly District 79 - Tequila poppers!

Conventional wisdom (the same wisdom that gave Peters the nod over Aguirre, Morrow a chance a against Sanders, etc) gives this to Hueso but he's never had to run against a class warrior like Quinones and an experienced veteran like Doyle. The Hueso camp has cobbled together an operation in the last month to compete with the other two which have been in operation for months.

It appears that he didn't realize he had to run a real campaign until May rolled around. Word on the street is that Hueso is planning a hit involving comments from some of Quinones's fellow boardmembers. Hueso also doesn't acknowledge Doyle probably because Doyle is set to take a chunk out of the votes that would be going to Hueso.

Either way, this race is turning into a streetfight between Ben and Pearl. I would have given this to Hueso but his inability to take the race seriously until the last minute may cost him. It will be close.

Prop G Chula Vista - Jaggersahots!
Talk about streetfights and close results. This will be decided by last minute voters and whichever side can yank people out who care about this in June. Chula Vistans have been flooded in the mail and on TV (watched MSNBC or the History Channel recently?). Labor needs to win this. Too close to call.

State Senate 40 - Vodka!

After sending and receiving Molotov cocktails, fire-bombs, and other incendiaries at eachother for months, the Salas and Vargas campaigns will reap the fruits of their labors. Will the insurance industry buy their seat for Vargas? Will Salas be able to raise her head to fight another day? Elements of this race had Spy-vs-Spy qualities.
Winner wins by 2-3 percentages.

Congressional District 50 - Peanuts
Emblem and Busby have been locking horns for over a year now. Emblem is running with Labor in an area where Labor is not popular. Busby gets it on name ID.

Extra! Republican Primary Congressional District 53 - Pretzls
This has been a fun one to watch! Fink gets it because she has good signs and is nowhere near as batty as her opponents.

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