Unless there is a Republican surge or heavy rain tomorrow, here is where I think the chips will fall:
Overall - Turnout makes the difference
GET OUT AND VOTE! We win when we vote. If you don't vote, rest assured the Right will. No matter how much the other side bellyaches about government, they're not stupid. If nothing, they will vote. And so should you.
D6 - Wayne by a hair
This race should not be this close. Labor divided its resources between Prop D, Wayne and Hueso in D8. The local Dems have been a funnel for the Whitburn effort. With such "allies", the Wayne Camp has fought heroically against the unified resources of the local GOP and Lincoln Club as they thrust one of the worst candidates forward that this city has seen onto the public.
Had the party been less focused on Whitburn and if Labor had not let their guns go silent with their "Don't get Zapf'd" campaign, Wayne would take this in a walk. As it is, expect a long night where there shouldn't have been one.
D8 - Alvarez
The Alvarez campaign has been plugging away while the Hueso campaign seemed stuck in neutral. With the UT articles over the weekend about the improper transfer of funds between Ben and Felipe using Labor as the go between and Labor's hard headed approach with the SDCDP regarding Alvarez, Labor and Ben have tipped this election into Alvarez's favor. He has gained support from a wide swath of South Bay activists as a reaction to the Ben/Labor effort.
Felipe never seemed awake to the fact that he was running for office. And calling Alvarez a "youngster" on KPBS didn't help his cause. His entire candidacy seemed to be a vanity project. Much like Sudberry & DeMaio's attempt to elect an obviously unqualified candidate to office (Zapf), this Gonzales & Hueso (Ben) attempt to elevate Felipe just smells bad.
And it didn't have to be. It's a Dem v Dem race ferchristssake! Do we not have enough issues as progressives in this city without our "friends" making enemies when there was no rational need to make them? Until the powers that be stop thinking with their guts and start thinking with their heads the progressive agenda in this city will have to wait for yet another cycle.
S4 - Roberts
While we are discussing vanity projects. Whitburn had a window in which to make his case and Roberts did seem rattled. Yet, Whitburn never made the case (though there is a good on to be made) and, even with a full court press from SEIU and the local Dem leadership (at the expense of Gronke and Wayne), Team Whitburn never seemed to catch fire.
Within the progressive circles, there is still some resentment about the Gloria win over Whitburn in D3. But Gloria has proven himself while Whitburn doesn't appear to have learned much from his race against Todd. In D3, Gloria worked for it while Whitburn seemed to expect other to do it for him. We don't have a Lincoln Club to make such things happen on the Left. As such, Roberts easily wins re-election.
Let's hope that S.S. Titanic Whitburn doesn't take down Wayne in the process.
Prop D - Fails
Let me just say that this was the wrong time to propose such a Proposition and the Yes side needed more help than Shepard could provide. The entire "Yes" effort seemed custom made to foster the growth of politician DeMaio's ego. "Nuff said.
See y'all at the bar!