Thursday, November 14, 2013

Faulconer and Alvarez Leading In Special San Diego Mayoral Election

DATAMAR Poll: November 13, 2013

San Diego – A poll released today by Datamar Inc., surveyed 533 voters on their preference of candidates in the upcoming City of San Diego Special Mayoral Election to be held November 19, 2013. It shows that Councilman Kevin Faulconer is favored by 44.1 percent, and Councilman David Alvarez has the support of 25.3 percent of the voters.

Former State Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher came in third with 15.9% of the respondents vote, and former San Diego City Attorney Michael Aguirre received 5.4%.

San Diego’s municipal elections are officially non-partisan, that is, candidate’s ballot statement does not identify the candidates with a political party identification.

However, when respondents indicated a preference for an individual candidate, the choice greatly correlated with a partisan choice.

The Special Mayoral contest, up to this point, has been waged, based on poll results, by four principal candidates. Currently, the survey respondents are indicating that the contest will have Kevin Faulconer and David Alvarez as the top two choices of the electorate to continue on to the general election. If that is the case, then the supporters of the other losing candidates will be able to select one of the victorious top-two candidates.

Providing an analysis of what the hypothetical race would look like at this point, we found that with slightly less than one week to go before the mayoral primary there are plenty of uncertainties in predicting the general election.

First, and of primary importance is the voter turnout. This is a special election, barely a year since the last election for the same office. Normally, the most dedicated partisan electorate participates in these elections, for a variety of reasons.

Sample size 533
+/-4.24 Percent sampling error
November 13, 2013

Methodology: Findings are from a November 13, 2013 survey using a comprehensive predictive model of registered voters, based on election cycles and other factors of voters in California. The survey was conducted using an automated telephone dialer and the voice of a professional announcer.

The targeted-registration-based-sampling (TRBS)* selection criteria were based on election cycles and other voter factors in California. Datamar’s proprietary algorithms were used to generate random samples from the target group for calling.

Where necessary, responses were normalized according to age, gender, region, and political party.
Datamar Inc., an independent polling and political strategies firm located in San Diego, CA

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