Saturday, December 7, 2013

Alvarez and Faulconer in a dead heat: Survey USA

Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20942

Geography Surveyed: City of San Diego, CA

Data Collected: 12/02/2013 - 12/05/2013

Release Date: 12/06/2013 08:00 ET

Sponsors: KGTV-TV San Diego, U-T San Diego

In San Diego Mayoral Runoff, Faulconer and Alvarez Break from the Gate Nose-to-Nose:
2 months until votes are counted in the San Diego Mayoral Runoff, Kevin Faulconer and David Alvarez are effectively even, 47% for Faulconer and 46% for Alvarez, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for KGTV-10 News and the San Diego Union Tribune. The results are within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error.

Faulconer leads among seniors. Alvarez leads among voters age 35 to 49. Faulconer leads among whites. Alvarez leads among Hispanics. Men split. Women split. 74% of Democrats back Alvarez. 76% of Republicans back Faulconer. Faulconer leads 3:2 among Independents. In SurveyUSA's final poll before the 11/19/13 special election, Independents favored Faulconer 2:1 over both Alvarez and 3rd-place finisher Nathan Fletcher.

77% of conservatives today back Faulconer. 69% of liberals back Alvarez. Moderates break narrowly for Alvarez. Alvarez leads among less affluent voters. Faulconer leads among more affluent voters.
37% of city of San Diego voters name "integrity" as the quality most important for a new mayor to have. 25% name "leadership."

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research.
SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults 12/02/13 through 12/05/13. Of the adults, 700 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 515 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day, 02/11/14. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (89% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (11% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smart phones, tablets or other electronic devices. Bob Filner resigned as Mayor in August. The seat is open.

If the runoff election for San Diego mayor were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Kevin Faulconer? Or David Alvarez?
Asked of 515 likely voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

47%  Kevin Faulconer
46%  David Alvarez
7%    Undecided

Which of these would be the most important quality for a new mayor to have? Integrity? Leadership? Stability? Business experience? Fiscal responsibility? The ability to reach across party lines? Or something else?
Asked of 515 likely voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4% 

37%  Integrity
25%  Leadership
4%    Stability
4%    Business Experience
15%  Fiscal Responsibility
9%    Reach Across Party Lines
5%    Something Else
1%    Not Sure

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