As of this writing, here’s where I see this race: between Arabo and Sherard for the Democratic nomination.
Say what you will about him. The fact is that he can put together a campaign. His people have been walking for over six months now and his signs are everywhere. Compared to the others, he has a solid shot.
Were it not for Sherard. There is a Republican business IE that has about 30 walkers getting $16/hour canvassing and reinforcing her already high name ID. Sherard’s campaign hasn't done much because they’re broke. Oddly and through no effort of her own, she too has a solid shot.
What will it take for Sacramento to wake up and stop going the Vince Hall-lite route? He has the institutional advantages. But he never walks. He campaign has only recently sprung into high gear and it screams too little too late. With IE’s and Arabo targeting similar universes, Marty loses out due to Arabo’s sign reinforcement of his name.
My heart goes out to her only because she has the best community profile of these candidates. She can still squeak through but only if her people are running a massive behind-the scenes operation. Not being privy to it, and only seeing a few of her sighs up, I’m counting her out of this one
How this turns out is anyone’s guess. The Republicans think Sherard is the weakest candidate and it makes sense they’d do what they could to help her. Were it not for Arabo, they might get away with it. Block could go balls out this upcoming weekend and kick up the percentage but I don’t think it will be enough And Ricasa is still viable for something else.