Thoughts on the 78th

As of this writing, here’s where I see this race: between Arabo and Sherard for the Democratic nomination.

Arabo
Say what you will about him. The fact is that he can put together a campaign. His people have been walking for over six months now and his signs are everywhere. Compared to the others, he has a solid shot.

Sherard
Were it not for Sherard. There is a Republican business IE that has about 30 walkers getting $16/hour canvassing and reinforcing her already high name ID. Sherard’s campaign hasn't done much because they’re broke. Oddly and through no effort of her own, she too has a solid shot.

Block
What will it take for Sacramento to wake up and stop going the Vince Hall-lite route? He has the institutional advantages. But he never walks. He campaign has only recently sprung into high gear and it screams too little too late. With IE’s and Arabo targeting similar universes, Marty loses out due to Arabo’s sign reinforcement of his name.

Ricasa
My heart goes out to her only because she has the best community profile of these candidates. She can still squeak through but only if her people are running a massive behind-the scenes operation. Not being privy to it, and only seeing a few of her sighs up, I’m counting her out of this one

How this turns out is anyone’s guess. The Republicans think Sherard is the weakest candidate and it makes sense they’d do what they could to help her. Were it not for Arabo, they might get away with it. Block could go balls out this upcoming weekend and kick up the percentage but I don’t think it will be enough And Ricasa is still viable for something else.

Shots anyone?

Followup on the 78th Race

I have received several e-mails today regarding the race in the 78th. Regarding endorsements, I'm told that the San Diego County Central Committee does not endorse in partisan races. Hence there will not be another opportunity for Marty Block to come up short on the required votes for a Democratic Party endorsement.

Speaking of endorsements, I have been told be several people that Speaker Karen Bass didn't endorse Auday Arabo. He does have the endorsement from former Speaker Fabian Nunez just not Bass' endorsement. There is a rumor going around that if Speaker Bass does choose to endorse in the race, she will endorse Arlie Ricasa. Stay tune for more....

Marty Block Fails to Get Dem Endorsement

Once again Marty Block came up a few votes short on getting the Democratic Party endorsement for the 78th Assembly district primary race. By coming up short for a second time, the big winners tonight were Arlie Ricasa and Auday Arabo. Speaking of Arabo, tonight the assembled delegates he announced that he had gained the personal endorsements of Speaker Fabian Nunez and Speaker-to-be Karen Bass. The timing of the announcement obviously helped to deny Block the party endorsement, but was nowhere enough to get Arabo the party endorsement himself.

One final note: Since the CDP has officially taken no position on the 78th race, it now falls to the San Diego County Democratic Party if they want to take a position on the race.

78th AD – Sherard?

Last week, a debate was held in Bonita in which Arabo, Block, Ricasa, and Sherard were invited. After waiting for quite some time for Sherard, the debate went forward.

Does anybody, outside of some Republicans looking to play spoiler, think Sherard has a prayer in this race? Arabo has the money, Block ahs the establishment, and Ricasa has the street cred.

Other than being the sacrificial lamb in the last cycle, what does Sherard bring to the race that makes her credible?

Does anyone know?

Honestly, the fact that she got the nomination last time wasn’t all that shocking especially in a low turnout primary. This time, she has real competition on the ground, which is where she got her support in 2006.

I don’t think she has a shot unless the Republicans offer to pay off her campaign debts and use her as cover to viciously attack the Democratic nominee.

Progressive San Diego Endorsement for the 78th A.D.

Progressive San Diego
"A United Voice for San Diego Progressives"

After much consideration and deliberation, Progressive San Diego is proud to announce our endorsement for the 78th Assembly District Democratic primary: Marty Block and Arlie Ricasa through the primary.

We are fortunate to have several candidates running in this race who have a commitment to PSD's ideals and philosophy. Of these candidates, Marty Block and Arlie Ricasa stood out as having demonstrated a long and successful track record on progressive issues. We believe that either candidate will be excellent legislators who will be able to promote a progressive agenda for the people of San Diego and California.

Progressive San diego will re-evaluate the race after the primary to decide who we will endorse in the general election.

To learn more about our endorsements please visit www.progressivesd.org

What's Going on in the 78th?

For the past couple of weeks there have been rumors swirling around that former 78th Democratic Assembly candidate from 2006, Maxine Sherard was considering another run for the seat. It seems these rumors are true.

Yesterday, I received an email from a friend who checked at the ROV and confirmed that Maxine Sherard has pulled papers to run. My friend also heard from a local printer that she had recently had printed personal cards listing her as a candidate for assembly.

Late this afternoon, I received an email from a South Bay Democratic activist confirming that Sherard has indeed pulled papers and is intent on running again. According to this person, she believes that since she has already been the Democratic nominee, her name recognition is good enough for her to win the primary.

On a final note, Arlie Ricasa has yet to pulled papers. She still has plenty of time to file to run, but one has to consider if she is having second thoughts about running.

Sacramento’s Heavy Hand?

In MySpace, a profile called Dump Arabo appeared with rainbow flags, a picture of men together, and other homosexual themes.

This site is in response to an incident where Auday Arabo, on behalf of his grocers association, apologizes for Miller’s sponsorship of a gay function in the Bay Area.

Whether true or not, I was struck by the use of a MySpace profile to hit a candidate in the primary. The fingerprints seem to point in the direction of Sacramento and here are my reasons:
The Arlie Ricasa’s campaign wouldn’t waste its time trying to tear down Arabo and Marty Block’s people are too establishment to think in this direction, at least in San Diego. Because in the 78th, the “gay issue” only really moves votes among conservative to moderate African Americans who, due to demographics, are falling as a voting bloc. The new voters, the new homeowners, and the recent immigrants are too much of a “wild card” to bet on as votes in the district so you go with what you know. It saves on money and manpower.

This is not how we San Diegans would call it, but this is how Sacramento would. If all you know of the 78th is what you read as far as registration goes, then you have misjudged the district and, lets be honest, Sacramento has done this hat trick too often to be an “accident” every time.

If it turns out that the hit is false, the LGBT community may otherwise look at Arabo as a viable option because he was attacked.

And the use of the Bronski Beat song? I mean, come on! That smells of someone called in to be stereotypical rather than real.

Which gets me back to MySpace. Unless you’re twelve, why would you even go there? Teens can’t vote. And the 78th isn’t know for being a hub of wireless Internet connections. Again, another example of how little is known about voters in the 78th and the sad attempts to manipulate the voters there.

Cross-posted at Calitics.

Tonight - Candidate Forum 78th Assembly District

South Bay Forum in co-Sponsorship with: The Chicano Democratic Association and The Mexican American Business & Political Association

Date: Monday, November 5, 2007, 6:00 to 8:00 P.M.
Location: Bell Junior High School 620 Briarwood Rd. San Diego, CA 92139 [Map]

(Rep) John McCann, Chula Vista City Councilman, has been invited and we are hopeful that he will confirm his participation shortly. Confirmed participants are (Dem) Auday Arabo, president of the Neighborhood Market Association, (Dem) Marty Block, president of the San Diego Community College Board of Trustees, and (Dem) Arlie Ricasa, president of the Sweetwater Union High School District School Board.

The forum format will begin with a 2-minute introductory statement from each candidate. Candidates will be asked questions from a panel of invited journalists and editors representing regional and local media. Invited news outlets include: the Star News, La Prensa, The San Diego Union Tribune, The San Diego Voice and View Point, and The Filipino Press.

In addition, members of the audience will be invited to submit questions to the South Bay Forum moderator. Forum Issues: K-12 Student Achievement, College Access and Success, Jobs and Economic Growth, Access to quality Healthcare, Public Safety including Disaster Management, Housing and Mortgage Industry, Fair Taxes, Environmental Protection, Transportation and Highway Infrastructure and enhancing the quality of life for our region’s residents.

For information contact SBF President Jose Preciado at admin@southbayforum.com or at (619) 922-2209 or visit our website at : www.southbayforum.com

78th Assembly District Candidates Forum

South Bay Forum in co-Sponsorship with: The Chicano Democratic Association and The Mexican American Business & Political Association

78th Assembly District Candidates Forum

Date: Monday, November 5, 2007, 6:00 to 8:00 P.M.

Location: Bell Junior High School
620 Briarwood Rd. San Diego, CA 92139 [Map]

(Rep) John McCann, Chula Vista City Councilman, has been invited and we are hopeful that he will confirm his participation shortly. Confirmed participants are (Dem) Auday Arabo, president of the Neighborhood Market Association, (Dem) Marty Block, president of the San Diego Community College Board of Trustees, and (Dem) Arlie Ricasa, president of the Sweetwater Union High School District School Board.

The forum format will begin with a 2-minute introductory statement from each candidate. Candidates will be asked questions from a panel of invited journalists and editors representing regional and local media. Invited news outlets include: the Star News, La Prensa, The San Diego Union Tribune, The San Diego Voice and View Point, and The Filipino Press. In addition, members of the audience will be invited to submit questions to the South Bay Forum moderator.

Forum Issues: K-12 Student Achievement, College Access and Success, Jobs and Economic Growth, Access to quality Healthcare, Public Safety including Disaster Management, Housing and Mortgage Industry, Fair Taxes, Environmental Protection, Transportation and Highway Infrastructure and enhancing the quality of life for our region’s residents.

For information contact SBF President Jose Preciado at admin@southbayforum.com or at (619) 922-2209 or visit our website at : www.southbayforum.com

More on the 78th

So, I would be remiss to not respond to some of the comments regarding yesterday's post on the race for the 78th AD. Truth is, I don't think Auday Arabo has a chance to become the Democratic nominee for the 78th. Personally, I have met Auday. I think he is a nice guy, affable - someone I could enjoy a beer and a ballgame with. But, he is not electable. In a Dem primary, he has no party credentials, save some out of town legislators who have benefited from his lavish donations. One might say that he has basically bought every endorsement he has received. Second, the Speakers office and Labor only care about winning this thing in the general. Hard to imagine that a guy who is on video as a voter in the Iraqi elections is going to win any critical conservative Dem or cross-over vote in the general. I think the troops will rally around one of their own: Marty Block or Arlie Ricasa. That being said, JAgatha is a loyal Dem who will be glad to support Auday IF he is the nominee. After all, Republican John McCann is the epitome of sloppy seconds, and no one likes those.

Don't You Just Love Mondays?

I love Mondays. I really do. My favorite part of the day is hearing the tidbits of gossip that made the rounds over the weekend. Here are some of my favorites to start the week:

1) The Republicans are trying to encourage Maxine Sherard to throw her hat in the ring for the 78th. They figure that her name recognition, as a result of the millions spent last year, would make her the front-runner for the Dem nomination. Why would they want that? She would be a much easier candidate in the general compared to a Marty Block or Arlie Ricasa. Especially now that former Police Chief David Bejerano has decided to wait it out for Sheriff instead, and all they have is their "yes man" John McCann. If the Black Caucus wants a candidate in the 78th, I doubt it will be Maxine Sherard, I would say San Diego City Councilmember Tony Young is much more likely a candidate. Although, neither have expressed much interest.

2) Republican Luis Acle, I hear, will not be running for re-election on the San Diego City Schools Board of Trustees. That will leave that position wide open for Democrat Richard Barrera.

3) Republican Shirley Horton is planning to return to Chula Vista for a City Council run against Steve Castenada. Gotta love how the Republicans eat their own. I hear she wants to set herself up for a 2012 run for Greg Cox's seat. However, Senator Denise Ducheny and Councilmember Ben Hueso have also previously expressed in interest in that seat.

4) There has been some talk about the Republican elected officials who WON'T be supporting ethically-challenged April Boling's run for District 7 City Council. Among those past and present Republican electeds who supposedly have a beef with Boling: the entire County Board of Supervisors, former Mayor Dick Murphy, former Councilwoman Judy McCarty, current Councilman Jim Madaffer, La Mesa Mayor Art Madrid, County Treasurer Dan McCallister, (need I continue). I'll be interested to see if Marti can pull endorsements from any of the above, or if they will eventually fall in line with the Downtown Establishment. Seems Boling has a hard time making and keeping friends, even among her base.

Showdown for the 78th starts tonight

So tonight is one of the key endorsements for the Democratic primary in the 78th AD. The San Diego Democratic Club - the largest and most powerful of clubs in the county - are hosting their candidate forum and endorsement. Rumor has it, all three of the Democratic candidates (Auday Arabo, Marty Block and Arlie Ricasa) are going to vie for it. Block is the obvious front runner, having spent a ton of time working the vote. But, don't discount the female / ethnic factor that Ricasa brings. Plus, in a club that values warmth - Ricasa definitely has the right personality. I have to admit, I almost feel sorry for Auday Arabo. Tonight he will get a taste for how Dem activists take to his former life as a Republican staffer and Lincoln Club donor. Does anyone remember the outrage pointed toward Rich Grosch when he tried to run for District 2 as a Democrat after previously endorsing Kevin Faulconer? Or the questions Todd Gloria faced as a result of giving $50 to Mayor Sanders? That is nothing compared to the anger from Dems to have a candidate that gave thousands to Congressman Bilbray (in his race against Francine Busby) and the local right-wing Lincoln Club. Stay tuned...