Saturday, May 24, 2008

GOP only have two real choices for San Diego Attorney

Recently, I have talked to members of the local Democratic Party, Lincoln Club, local Republican Party and a union activist over the San Diego City Attorney race. I walked away from all those conversations with the Oh My Gosh moment. GOP has only have two choices come November, Scott Peters or Mike Aguirre.

We all know Mike will make the general election, the polls, the talk from the San Diego downtown establishment and the party insiders all know it. So, the second name on the ballot will make the difference on who will beat or lose to Mike.

Scenario 1 – Scott Peters wins the second spot. The unions support Scott, along with the downtown interests, developers and the Democratic Party. The GOP and Lincoln Club stays neutral. Mike won't get his party's endorsement again, is blocked from large contributions and can't mount a major campaign. Mike doesn't get many major endorsements to boost his case, except for maybe the likes of Donna Frye. Mike has no volunteer base, no money and no chance to beat Scott.

Scenario 2 – Jan takes second place and unions are forced to support Mike over Jan. Mike now gets his party's endorsement, which comes with major money and major endorsements. Mike can now mail, gets on the air and gets a lot of volunteers. Mike calls press conferences weekly about every scandal, or so called possible scandal of the GOP, linking it all to Jan. Lincoln Club and GOP are forced to spend major money on the race or look foolish. There are GOP and Libertians that like Mike, eroding Jan's base and the Dems vote and do it as a vote against Jan. Mike will win it.

Scenario 3 – Brian takes second place, the unions might do what they just did in the mayor's race and endorse in name only at the last minute. However, the Democratic Party now is forced to endorse Mike. Mike can now mail, gets on the air and gets a lot of volunteers. Mike calls press conferences weekly about every scandal, or so called possible scandal of the GOP, linking it all to Brian, including the pension underfunding. Lincoln Club and GOP are forced to spend major money on Brian who they really don't like in the race or look foolish. There are GOP that like Mike and hate Brian, eroding Brian's possible base, many Libertians vote for Mike over Brian and the Dems vote and do it as a vote against Brian. Mike will win it.

GOP make your choice Mike or Scott.


Off the topic, but can't help but say, if Mike McSweeney had won the San Diego Unified School District seat two years ago, then he would never had taken a job for the mayor, been the scapegoat for Tom Shepard as so many others have done before and now have his public political career ruined.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Solid analysis and great point about the GOP. If the goal is to out Mike, Scott is their guy. Either way, the D's win.

Anonymous said...

If McSweeney was on the school board we'd have yet another anti-education zealot deciding how best not to educate out children.

Good riddance.

Anonymous said...

You might have to rethink scenario 2. The unions will back a Republican before the back Mike Aguirre. In fact, I think the unions will support anyone but Mike.

Anonymous said...

It would be a sad day for Democrats if we were forced to choose between a kook like Aguirre and a crook like Peters. Goldsmith may be a Republican, but I can, like Andrew Jones, put that aside to elect the BEST qualified city attorney. I also disagree with your assumptions. Peters has the kind of baggage Aguirre can exploit to attract votes from both parties.

Adam Smith said...

I am not saying the unions will spend money and walk for Mike, but would they support Jan, I highly doubt it.

As for the Democrat supporting Jan comment, when Democrats learn about his voting record in Sacramento and Mike mails about Jan's spousal abuse charge by his wife I think it will seal the deal against Jan.

Anonymous said...

Adam, I understand Scott is your man, but let's be real for a moment. Jan's voting record is squarely moderate and he has been on our side for environmental issues and was a strong leader for foster care rights. He was well regarded by his Democrat colleagues as being open minded and independent, a far cry from a far right nutjob. Second, I think most Dems will consider an attack on Jan's marriage history as nothing more than garbage politics. Jan has been married 30+ years and you are talking about an incident over 20 years ago. To me, Jan is an appealing alternative to Mike and Scott for city attorney.

Anonymous said...

Aguirre's done nothing short of call the heads of the local unions corrupt. From Labor Council to Firefighters. There's no way they do anything more than a tacit endorsement of Aguirre if its a choice between him and Goldsmith. I'd bet, in fact, that they'd shrug their shoulders and walk away from it.

Blue Diegan said...

Well as a Solid Dem if I have to choose between Jan and Mike. Jeez man, really? Could I just write-in someone? Like Howard Wayne or JG Wentworth? I hear that JG is my cash solution. "It's my money and I need it now!"

Blue Diegan said...

Sorry, I just had to write that. But if I had to choose between Jan and Mike, I'm voting for Mike. Now Mike's not my first choice or my second but if it's him verses any R I can't see myself voting any other way. Now if they could only find that attic where the real Mike Aguirre is being stashed then I'd be much happier.

Adam Smith said...

I don't care if an issue was yesterday or 50 years ago. In fact, most hit pieces usually don't even tell the whole truth. I can see the "hit" piece and, if Jan wasn't the Rep in the race, then I think Duane Dichiara would be all over this as a mailer.