Recently, I have talked to members of the local Democratic Party, Lincoln Club, local Republican Party and a union activist over the San Diego City Attorney race. I walked away from all those conversations with the Oh My Gosh moment. GOP has only have two choices come November, Scott Peters or Mike Aguirre.
We all know Mike will make the general election, the polls, the talk from the San Diego downtown establishment and the party insiders all know it. So, the second name on the ballot will make the difference on who will beat or lose to Mike.
Scenario 1 – Scott Peters wins the second spot. The unions support Scott, along with the downtown interests, developers and the Democratic Party. The GOP and Lincoln Club stays neutral. Mike won't get his party's endorsement again, is blocked from large contributions and can't mount a major campaign. Mike doesn't get many major endorsements to boost his case, except for maybe the likes of Donna Frye. Mike has no volunteer base, no money and no chance to beat Scott.
Scenario 2 – Jan takes second place and unions are forced to support Mike over Jan. Mike now gets his party's endorsement, which comes with major money and major endorsements. Mike can now mail, gets on the air and gets a lot of volunteers. Mike calls press conferences weekly about every scandal, or so called possible scandal of the GOP, linking it all to Jan. Lincoln Club and GOP are forced to spend major money on the race or look foolish. There are GOP and Libertians that like Mike, eroding Jan's base and the Dems vote and do it as a vote against Jan. Mike will win it.
Scenario 3 – Brian takes second place, the unions might do what they just did in the mayor's race and endorse in name only at the last minute. However, the Democratic Party now is forced to endorse Mike. Mike can now mail, gets on the air and gets a lot of volunteers. Mike calls press conferences weekly about every scandal, or so called possible scandal of the GOP, linking it all to Brian, including the pension underfunding. Lincoln Club and GOP are forced to spend major money on Brian who they really don't like in the race or look foolish. There are GOP that like Mike and hate Brian, eroding Brian's possible base, many Libertians vote for Mike over Brian and the Dems vote and do it as a vote against Brian. Mike will win it.
GOP make your choice Mike or Scott.
Off the topic, but can't help but say, if Mike McSweeney had won the San Diego Unified School District seat two years ago, then he would never had taken a job for the mayor, been the scapegoat for Tom Shepard as so many others have done before and now have his public political career ruined.
Showing posts with label GOP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GOP. Show all posts
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
Monday - Quicks Hits
Hypocrisy in action, GOP complains about earmarks but it hasn't stop Representatives Hunter, Issa and Bilbray from securing their own earmarks. NCTimes
Housing crisis continues. Home sales fall to their lowest level in a decade. UT
Cliff erosion is forcing NOAA to evacuate to buildings in La Jolla. UT
State might consider raising gas tax to offset revenue shortfall. NCTimes
Cities of Carlsbad and Oceanside discuss possible land swap. NCTimes
Housing crisis continues. Home sales fall to their lowest level in a decade. UT
Cliff erosion is forcing NOAA to evacuate to buildings in La Jolla. UT
State might consider raising gas tax to offset revenue shortfall. NCTimes
Cities of Carlsbad and Oceanside discuss possible land swap. NCTimes
Thursday, November 29, 2007
Good business is only good, if we don't include the GOP
The other night I thought more about my post on the GOP fundraising and did some more reading.
The GOP will have a tough time in 2008. On a national level, they have vulnerable House members, more open House and Senate seats then the Democrats, and more total Senate seats up for election too. As my previous post pointed out they don't have the money for this fight. The only way to win is in 2008 is if the Democrats shot themselves in the foot. That is not impossible.
On a state level, the GOP will have to defend two open Republican Assembly seats, which where drawn for Democrats, but which the GOP picked up six years ago and as incumbents were easily able to defend them. However, six years later, a very difference political environment and candidate pool, plus party registration does not make it look so promising for the GOP. George "Cheetahs" Stevens the GOP still need you! You have to give it the GOP for saying they will keep the seats, because what do you expect them to tell the poor fools running and the money people they have dumping cash into the races it will be an up hill battle ahead.
On the local level, it looks brighter for the GOP, but not so bright as it should for them. Right now, Mayor Jerry Sanders has no challengers, but GOP Steve Francis might take him on. Francis is the state's GOP Finance Chairman. You might remember in 2005, then local GOP Chair and now State Chair Ron Nehring was speculated to have fixed the endorsement for Steve Francis. What will the local GOP party or state GOP party do, if Francis does runs?
If you re-read the San Diego Reader article that covered the previous endorsement fight it makes you think who will give the biggest bang for the buck to the San Diego County Republican Party. You see this county's GOP charges a HUGE TAX (18.5%) on contributions they wash through their books for member communications. Means for every $100,000 they get from a donor for doing paperwork, then they pocket $18,500 of it, not bad. Other GOP county parties don't charge such a high tax and even the supposedly tax crazy Democrats don't charge so much for their wash through service. As a board member of a multi-million non-profit we would never take more then 15% from our donations for administration costs, because we make sure the money really goes to the service the people donated it too.
How can the San Diego County Republican Party justify this extreme tax?
The GOP will have a tough time in 2008. On a national level, they have vulnerable House members, more open House and Senate seats then the Democrats, and more total Senate seats up for election too. As my previous post pointed out they don't have the money for this fight. The only way to win is in 2008 is if the Democrats shot themselves in the foot. That is not impossible.
On a state level, the GOP will have to defend two open Republican Assembly seats, which where drawn for Democrats, but which the GOP picked up six years ago and as incumbents were easily able to defend them. However, six years later, a very difference political environment and candidate pool, plus party registration does not make it look so promising for the GOP. George "Cheetahs" Stevens the GOP still need you! You have to give it the GOP for saying they will keep the seats, because what do you expect them to tell the poor fools running and the money people they have dumping cash into the races it will be an up hill battle ahead.
On the local level, it looks brighter for the GOP, but not so bright as it should for them. Right now, Mayor Jerry Sanders has no challengers, but GOP Steve Francis might take him on. Francis is the state's GOP Finance Chairman. You might remember in 2005, then local GOP Chair and now State Chair Ron Nehring was speculated to have fixed the endorsement for Steve Francis. What will the local GOP party or state GOP party do, if Francis does runs?
If you re-read the San Diego Reader article that covered the previous endorsement fight it makes you think who will give the biggest bang for the buck to the San Diego County Republican Party. You see this county's GOP charges a HUGE TAX (18.5%) on contributions they wash through their books for member communications. Means for every $100,000 they get from a donor for doing paperwork, then they pocket $18,500 of it, not bad. Other GOP county parties don't charge such a high tax and even the supposedly tax crazy Democrats don't charge so much for their wash through service. As a board member of a multi-million non-profit we would never take more then 15% from our donations for administration costs, because we make sure the money really goes to the service the people donated it too.
How can the San Diego County Republican Party justify this extreme tax?
Saturday, November 24, 2007
George W. Bush is even bad for GOP Fundraising
Whatever you may think of President George W. Bush and Iraq, we all have to admit he has been bad for the GOP. Since his last election, the GOP lost both houses of Congress and now are set up to loss the White House.
It is so bad today that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) might be closing their fundraising gap to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), but the DSCC still brought in $45.1 million to the $26.3 million by the NRSC. The NRSC is not alone, the National Republican Congressional Committee has raised only $6.1 million to the $13.4 million from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee members.
Now the Union Tribune reported today the California Republican Party is moving forward to slash its most important program, their county fundraising and organizing program. It is reported they were $1.7 million in debt by the end of October. Maybe the Republican Party should look to outsource their party's programs and fundraising, because clearly they can't do it in house very well.
Though you won't read any of this in the Republican blogs.
It is so bad today that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) might be closing their fundraising gap to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), but the DSCC still brought in $45.1 million to the $26.3 million by the NRSC. The NRSC is not alone, the National Republican Congressional Committee has raised only $6.1 million to the $13.4 million from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee members.
Now the Union Tribune reported today the California Republican Party is moving forward to slash its most important program, their county fundraising and organizing program. It is reported they were $1.7 million in debt by the end of October. Maybe the Republican Party should look to outsource their party's programs and fundraising, because clearly they can't do it in house very well.
Though you won't read any of this in the Republican blogs.
Friday, September 28, 2007
GOP Dirty Rotten Scoundrel - Dead On Arrival!
The GOP's attempt to steal 20 - 22 of California's 55 electoral votes is going down in flames. Their attempt to "reform" only our great state is a blatant attempt to steal the 2008 presidential election. California, like 47 other states, awards all of its electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes. In the last four elections, all of California's electoral votes have gone to the Democratic nominee.
According to the LA Times, the reasons for the early demise of this ballot initiative are the lack of funds, and the resignation of two of its original backers.
If any similar measure should ever be considered in the future, it must be done across all 47 states. I suggest that we start with Texas and Florida!
Call me cynical, but I don't trust the GOP. If they can't win hearts and minds, they'll cheat! So watch out for their next dirty trick!
According to the LA Times, the reasons for the early demise of this ballot initiative are the lack of funds, and the resignation of two of its original backers.
If any similar measure should ever be considered in the future, it must be done across all 47 states. I suggest that we start with Texas and Florida!
Call me cynical, but I don't trust the GOP. If they can't win hearts and minds, they'll cheat! So watch out for their next dirty trick!
Friday, September 7, 2007
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
The GOP is up to their dirty tricks again! The CA Republican Party‘s "Presidential Election Reform Act" is nothing but another right-wing power grab. If you can’t hijack an election by having a Kathryn Harris or a Kenneth Blackwell, then use the techniques perfected by the good ole Tom Delay/Karl Rove School of Election Theft. Their goal, of course, is to hijack the White House on June 3, 2008 — five months before the general election.
This dangerous initiative dictates that California divide up its electoral college votes by congressional district, allowing Republicans to rob 20 electoral college votes — the equivalent of Ohio. If these dirty rotten scoundrels really want reform, they should propose national change — not cherry-pick California's electoral votes to, once again, steal the executive branch. May I suggest we begin with Texas?
Editorials by the New York Times and the L.A. Times called this ballot initiative an "elaborate dirty trick" designed by a "shadowy group" to "do serious damage to our democracy."
Unfortunately, this initiative has cleared the first hurdle, and they will start the signature gathering process to qualify for the June ballot. Sponsors will have until Christmas to gather 434,000 valid signatures. No doubt, their hired guns will be out in full force in front of every Wal-Mart. PLEASE remind your family, friends, relatives, neighbors, and co-workers not to sign this petition when they see those paid signature gatherers.
The Courage Campaign, headed up by Rick Jacobs, is uniting with the netroots and the grassroots to build a people-powered online infrastructure in California that will defeat this dirty trick. Check out their web site at: http://www.couragecampaign.org/
Personally, I would prefer to derail them in their signature gathering effort. We can start by educating people and publicizing what this initiative is all about. We need to take action now! Having a Rudy McRomney in the White House scares the heck out of me!
This dangerous initiative dictates that California divide up its electoral college votes by congressional district, allowing Republicans to rob 20 electoral college votes — the equivalent of Ohio. If these dirty rotten scoundrels really want reform, they should propose national change — not cherry-pick California's electoral votes to, once again, steal the executive branch. May I suggest we begin with Texas?
Editorials by the New York Times and the L.A. Times called this ballot initiative an "elaborate dirty trick" designed by a "shadowy group" to "do serious damage to our democracy."
Unfortunately, this initiative has cleared the first hurdle, and they will start the signature gathering process to qualify for the June ballot. Sponsors will have until Christmas to gather 434,000 valid signatures. No doubt, their hired guns will be out in full force in front of every Wal-Mart. PLEASE remind your family, friends, relatives, neighbors, and co-workers not to sign this petition when they see those paid signature gatherers.
The Courage Campaign, headed up by Rick Jacobs, is uniting with the netroots and the grassroots to build a people-powered online infrastructure in California that will defeat this dirty trick. Check out their web site at: http://www.couragecampaign.org/
Personally, I would prefer to derail them in their signature gathering effort. We can start by educating people and publicizing what this initiative is all about. We need to take action now! Having a Rudy McRomney in the White House scares the heck out of me!
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