Sunday, July 29, 2012

DeMaio’s Ceiling


Polling has been happening in San Diego about propositions and other general election issues. The mayoral race is the elephant in the room and a number of these polls have inserted a question about the Filner-DeMaio match-up.

What is interesting is the consistency of the results.

Filner, without raising a finger, is running in the low 40s to high 30s as a percentage of the vote. This currently puts him over DeMaio who is registering high 20s and low 30s. From the polling this blogger has seen, Carl hasn’t broken 32%.

The latest poll has the race at:
40% - Filner
32% - DeMaio
29% - Undecided

As an average, these polling results closely mirror party registration in San Diego:
42% - Democrats
29% - Republicans
25% - DTS
4% - Other


This early, voters are sticking to their party lines and they know what these party lines are.

This is the best DeMaio can do despite running for mayor for the last four years. His campaign has not let up since the primary in working downtown for support and trying to raise his profile among professional organizations but his numbers aren’t moving.

With all the effort, money, and time DeMaio has spent laying the ground for his mayoral campaign, he can’t get beyond the party base. This is extremely telling. He may be entering Meg Whitman territory; no matter how much money you spend, voters just aren’t that into you.

All the noise around DeMaio has succeeded in educating base voters about him and the results are not positive.

Filner is not out of the woods but he has a stronger natural base to run from. He has risen beyond his margin in the primary and looks like he can capture a majority of the vote. The same can’t be said for DeMaio.

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