Friday, September 28, 2007
D3 a Two Man Race?
Interesting happenings in the San Diego District 3 Council race. It seems John Hartley has decided to take on Todd Gloria as if this is a two man race. Hartley fired off a letter to Gloria, as reported in VOSD, condemning The Center for holding their dinner at a non-union hotel. The stunt served two purposes. First, a clear message to the unions that Hartley will be more of an advocate for their issues than Gloria. Second, that Hartley sees this as a contest between the two. Insiders have been saying Hartley's only shot to win this is in the primary, with low GLBT turnout. Those chances get better if he can snag a labor endorsement. But what does this mean for the flailing campaign of Stephen Whitburn? Did he peek too soon and rely too heavily on the (now controversial) Donna Frye endorsement? Is this really down to battle between Gloria and Hartley?
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You're kidding right? Or I suppose that's really the Voice of San Diego. I agree that right now its Gloria against the world - he's running a very good campaign from what I've seen (for instance, at Pride, there were Gloria signs and buttons everywhere), and has staked himself as a strong Gay candidate.
Whitburn, who positioned himself well in the beginning, hasn't really come through. With a good ground campaign he might be able to crawl back in.
That said, there's no way Hartley takes this seat. After he lost to Atkins twice, and by substantial margins, it became obvious that Hartley isn't in touch with this District anymore. I don't care how pissed the Labor Council is, Hartley ain't beating Gloria.
Btw, why would the LGBT turnout be low? If anything, LGBT turnout will increase because its a Presidential Election year.
Let's be honest, Hartley got 30% of the vote when he ran against Toni Atkins the last time around. He has a natural constituency within that district so he knows that if these people came out against a popular incumbent then they'll most likely come out in an open primary. So that leaves him with Todd since he's been raising the money and been doing everything a candidate should be doing. Whereas Steve seems to be going back to the people that all ready are supporting him. I'm thinking that he's hoping for the Dem Party endorsement to give a boost his campaign and be the "real" Democrat in June. But by this time Todd would have amassed enough money and community leader support to solidify his front runner status. So I think this is what John is thinking so he wants to take on Todd now since he's only true obstacle at this time. I mean where was Steven during Wal-Mart? Where was Steven during the marriage equality debate at the city council? He's got to go out there and make his case that he should be the front runner not Todd but he's just not doing it. Why? who knows... But a lot of people are asking these questions...
Jim, the "family" vote will be split between Todd and Steven. So this leaves an opening for John. As for Labor? Who knows? I know there are some people who are really pissed at Donna for her vote and Where was Steven? This issue is vital to the Labor Council and he's nowhere... As for Todd he has to convince Labor that he's not his boss and let's be honest, he was at the council fighting against Wal-Mart... Where was Steven?
I like Steve Whitburn and I'm incline to vote to endorse him at Central Committee. He's very personable and that helps him, but I think he and his campaign manager Tim are over their head. They just don't seem to have "the fire in their belly" to win this.
As for John Hartley, I see this guy all over D3 walking precincts already! He may just squeak by and make it to the runoff.
I am inclined to support Todd as a Central Committee member and I think it is going to be a squeaker since most of the other central committee members seem like to Stephen more because Stephen is always at the central committee meetings while Todd is always at D3 community group meetings instead. I did think about Stephen but what turned me off big time was at the June Central Committee meeting when both candidates made their first official pitches and all Stephen could muster was that his campaign consultants did work for big campaigns like Boxer and etc and that they had the endorsements of the DFA and Democrats for Disability Rights which are two very small organizations. I have a feeling if the central committee endorses Stephen by a small margin, Todd will be able to quickly establish himself as the community grassroots candidate while stephen establishes himself as the insider party favorite endorsed by so many party activists that do not even reside in Todd's district. I am supporting Todd and hopefully Stephen will bow out and let Todd beat Hartley in the primary so we do not need a run off and can focus all of our time on the Emerald race.
Hartley? Are we kidding? Why does he want to run so bad? People really ought to ask. And Whitburn sounds like a great voice for a radio show someplace. Gloria should pull it off.
Have you seen latest in D7 race? Should be a doozie. Marti Emerald and April Bowling. I found this link: http://www.missiontimescourier.com/article.cfm?articleID=2114
One thing to keep in mind is that, at best, Hartley makes it to the run-off going against Gloria. The LGBT community will then back Gloria full heartedly, and then Hartley will lose.
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