It’s a solid Dem district with three good Democrats running. Here’s where I see things:
This guy may only be 29 but he’s running a campaign like a pro. From the signs blanketing University just after the Pride parade last year to racking up endorsements from the P.O.A., the League of Conservation Voters, and Francine Busby, this guy’s got it going on. From the beginning, I was impressed with his campaign and the tightness of his team. This shows an executive ability to put together a staff and manage operations.
But I don’t think he can clear this in June because of…
Say what you will about him, his shoe-leather campaign will pay dividends. San Diegans dig a bit of old school in their politics and John has the time and energy to walk the district. This bodes well for him making the run-off. Hell, he can win without Remer even though, like a lamprey, Larry is present.
Gloria has a more professional operation but Hartley has name recognition and recognizes that, for all its bluster, this is not a “gay” seat. Just look at the numbers. Any strategy based only on the community may get you in the run-off but won’t deliver the election, at least the first time.
Which brings me to….
An upstanding young man with the San Diego Democratic Club and some of their more active members behind him. Were the community unified, either he or Gloria could have a shot at taking this in the first round. As is, he’s got a lot of ground to cover having been out-hustled by Gloria early on. With Hartley pounding the pavement, Whitburn is caught between toe skilled operators plying their skill which leaves him, IMHO, the third man in this race.
I know labor is split, as is the gay community, on this race. I don’t know who will win, but, so far, things haven’t gotten bloody and this bodes well. Any of these three would be necessary for progress on the City Council. I just hope things don’t get too ugly before it is all over.