Saturday, October 6, 2007

Republicans fooling themselves on the 78th

The local Republican leaders have lost their supposed hero, former Police Chief David Bejarano and scrambled to re-hype Chula Vista Councilman John McCann. This is the same person the party forced out of the race for Bejarano.

Now, the party is looking at what they can do to hold on to the district seat and there was only one way, money, money and even more money. However, they seem to be missing why Assemblywoman Shirley Horton was able to win the seat in the first place and I'm not going to tell them.

The 78 Assembly District has a total registration of 204,938 voters and the party breakdown is 84,033 Dems, 69,443 Reps and 42,955 DTS. Remember the 76 Assembly District has a total registration of 214,340 voters and the party breakdown is 84,797 Dems, 63,564 Reps and 54,012 DTS.

So, again it wasn't the party registration that won the seat for Horton and with a higher turnout for the Presidential election next November McCann will need more then money.


Anonymous said...

Whatever! Real Americans will always choose real American Values! Not the Liberal/Gay/Terror enabling agenda!

Anonymous said...

If Republicans truely think they can hold the 78th AD seat with McCann, then their party has really gone off the deep end.

Looking at the numbers, then it is like a Dem beating Nathan Fletcher for the 75th AD seat.

The Republicans spending real money in the 78th would be called a mercy date. You date the person one time just because you feel bad for them.

At least McCann will have two more years left on his council seat after the November '08 election to fall back on.

Anonymous said...

I love it that you dems think you have a lock on the seat. On election night and John is announced the winner we will see whow is laughing!

Jon Timmons said...

Looking at the AD registration numbers I stand by my earlier posting and think Tom is the only one who is understanding what the numbers mean.

Anonymous said...

The greater sign of a Democratic pickup is the political direction of the Independent voters.

In the Central Valley swing seat up near Bakersfield, the independents are socially conservative, pro-gun and anti-environmentalist - thus that seat should go Republican. In the Imperial County seat to the east, the Independents are also more conservative, and even many of the Democrats are pro-life. Again, that one should stay with the Republicans.

In addition to the big Democratic advantage in the 78th, the independents are supportive of issues like the environment, they are not sold by social conservatism, and they can't stand Bush. Big Democratic Pickup.

What is most important is getting the right Democrat - not some liquor lobbyist supported by Big Tobacco. Democrats and Independents won't be too inclined to support that kind of candidate and a Republican could win just because of liberal apathy.