Competitive races - 6 days left

SAN DIEGO MAYOR

Californians for Small Business are push polling against Filner. The automated survey asks Democrats "if you knew ______, would it change your opinion." The blanks are about missed votes, pushing his way onto an airplane and being found guilty of trespassing, and that he voted against DOMA. Voter suppression is a time-honored tactic when you want to keep your opponent's base at home because you can bring out enough of your voters. With a three-way (on paper) Republican division of their electorate, the fewer Democrats they can keep from casting votes the better for DeMaio and Fletcher. Dumanis, even with the support of the Mayor, is irrelevant at this point. It looks like the three men will battle it out for the top two positions.

SAN DIEGO CITY COUNCIL 1 & 7

Ellis has yet to make a case for removing Lightner and she hasn't done anything wrong, by her district, to warrant removal. UFCW has mailed against her for her position on Wal-Mart but there are not many union voters in D1. Lightner and Ellis settle this in the fall.

Kostrinsky has a higher bar to hurdle (registration numbers) but he should squeak by to make it in November. After that, this race becomes a death-match.

CD 51

Vargas has gone after Ducheny from day one (eliminating her position on a state board) and has not let up. His latest hit on her deals with payments to her husband for campaign management which is being spun as using donor money to fund their personal lives. The Ducheny campaign has hit back, pointing out that "she has "outraised her opponent for the second time since she's entered the race." The campaign says it has "raised over $52,780 dollars, while her main opponent raised only $46,344." The campaign adds, "almost 85%" of the money raised has come from individuals, most of whom live in the district, and "just under half of Vargas' contributions have come from Political Action Committees, like the Insurance and Banking lobbies." It looks like this will be settled in November.

CD 52

The Peters campaign has put out his "final" TV ad while the Saldaña campaign has just begun their on-airoperation that is to "run during the closing week of the Saldaña's June 5th Primary contest." As this is happening, Bilbray continues his assault (4 mailings as of today with more expected) through the mail at Peters.

SD 39

Marty and George walk in June to wrestle in November

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This ground has been cursed for Democrats and this cycle doesn't appear to be an exception. Maienschein will be the Republican in the top two but the second place, like in CD 52, is where the action is. Hernandez, the endorsed Democrat, is being crowded out by Laskaris, a DTS that is being pushed by the local AFT union. It is possible that this will be a race where the Republican will be running against a union-candidate that is not a Democrat.

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Dr. Shirley Weber should be the favorite but fate has not been kind to her campaign. There was the very expensive IE "misfire" by her allies that mailed to the wrong district on the critical weekend before absentee ballots were mailed. Then there is the Betsy Butler race in AD 50 that has the Assembly Speaker ordering asking staffers of current members to spend time in LA instead of helping the campaigns that their bosses have endorsed. She does have an experienced campaign manger and name recognition in a nice portion of the new AD.

She doesn't have to buy name ID like Rudy Ramirez. Coming from Chula Vista to represent a district that takes in SDSU, S.E. San Diego, and parts of La Mesa and Lemon Grove his money has purchased a number of signs in Mission Valley (?). He has been selling himself as the "business friendly" Democrat and had gained the largess of business PACs spending in the district for him. His ground operation may not stray from the predictable but this phoning and voter contact operations are to be commended if he makes it through.

Sid Voorakkara has money and a heavy ground campaign. Like Ramirez, he's had to buy name ID but unlike Ramirez his signs are in laws and not on light posts.  His mailings are good, he is unafraid of voter contact, and has built a solid foundation. It remains to be seen if it will be enough to make the top two. The district is so Balkanized that it is difficult to call it for anyone.

Dr. Pat Washington is a community fixture with the unfortunate luck to be competing for the same votes as Dr. Weber.  Washington's campaign is a volunteer driven community effort running against Weber's professional community driven campaign. I don't think Washington makes it but she may pull enough votes from Weber to allow Ramirez and/or Voorakkara to make it.

Of the two Republicans, only Mary English has a shot of making it. She's a known vote getter and can easily unify the Republicans as the only viable one in the race.