Sunday, November 3, 2013

Does the Knight Fall?

It was just about two months ago, when then San Diego City Mayor Bob Filner was going to resign and dialogue about an upcoming special mayoral election on the Democratic side was to put forward a candidate that could beat either former San Diego City Councilmember Carl DeMaio or San Diego City Councilmember Kevin Faulconer.   

Former California State Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher, who had run and failed in the last mayoral election, was now being touted around town as the savior of the left by some state and federal elected officials, as well as big Democratic donors as the only one that could win the special mayoral election.  He was the one!  This banter was to take him even over a true tested Democrat elected with name id, fundraising ability, proven mayoral leadership and solid Democratic credentials, California State Assemblymember Toni Atkins.  Remember, Assemblymember Atkins steered the city the last time a mayor resigned.  The theory regarding former Assemblymember Fletcher was he had name identification, polls showed him ahead of “Dirty DeMaio” and “No Name ID Kevin”, as well as he had brought in big fundraising numbers in his last failed mayoral attempt and he was just swell on the stump.  Those points were regardless of the facts that former Assemblymember Fletcher had switched his party registration three times in about a year and half, lost most of his support from the right which he was still touting as him being able to be a consensus maker, while disavowing his previous held public policy positions and voting record.  Also, when he was truly tested in a heated campaign he crumbled or some would say never lived up to the hype in the last mayoral primary.  These new boosters of former Assemblymember Fletcher billed him as the savior on the left.  Funny, just in the 2012 mayoral election, he was billed as the true savior on the right from “Dirty DeMaio”.

The latest polls are coming out, after we have gotten into the thick of a real campaign.  Voters have been hearing the positives, the negatives, the endorsements of elected officials and organizations.  Big money has been spent and we can expect some more money still to come into play.  Under the pressure of a campaign, former Assemblymember Fletcher has shown yet again his well-developed image and the storyline of the campaign he and others touted does not stand-up.  There are various public and even internal polls, including his own I understand that all show former Assemblymember Fletcher dropping now below Councilmember Faulconer.  In fact, they all have him neck and neck with San Diego City Councilmember David Alvarez.  Those in the Fletcher campaign want to point fingers outside of their own campaign and cast blame onto others, but a true assessment is on his campaign and their supportive independent expenditures.  Nothing is a sure bet going into a campaign, but you need to make the best of what you have at hand.  The tails of endorsements, money, name identification and cross party appeal does not seem to be materializing for him.

The election is not over yet and polls are not always right at forecasting the election, but it seems like what the storyline of this knight riding a stallion in shining armor to rescue all of us on the left is looking more like after all the horn blowing, drummers and fanfare, he is just maybe a pimply guy on a colt with a spray-on tan missing the target and falling off his horse.  Only time will tell, the election results this election night!

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