Polls, polls and more polls

We are coming down to the final weeks before E-Day and the polls from the various campaigns and IE committees are all basically showing the same thing, San Diego City Councilmember Kevin Faulconer is in the lead around the low 30's, and San Diego City Councilmember David Alvarez is running neck and neck with former California State Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher.  Depending on the time of the polls, Alvarez has passed Fletcher, but the margin of error still keeps them in a dead heat.  This information includes Fletcher's own internal poll, which he has not yet released.  The only poll that was different is the Survey USA poll.

There are two things that are very clear:
1) There will be a run-off
2) Faulconer will be in the run-off, unless he commits some major misstep.

Fletcher supporters fearing his loss are now running around claiming Faulconer could win it straight out in the primary, even when they said Nathan could have won it straight out in the primary or was so strong he would win it in a run-off.  Clearly, they were feeding people a fairy tale line and the next time these spin-not so masters tell you about another race, then you might want to tell them thank you, but no thank you.

These polls have shown Fletcher wasn't as strong as proposed by his early supporters either against Alvarez or Faulconer and the early polls were more about name identification, then anything else.  It shows that if the few unions and Democratic elected endorsements had followed the Labor Council and Democratic Party and gone with the lifelong Democrat, who had the proven progressive voting record Alvarez, then he would be in a dead heat with Faulconer and Fletcher would have folded even faster in the race and not place the possibility of Fletcher getting into the run-off to clearly loss it.

Does the Knight Fall?

It was just about two months ago, when then San Diego City Mayor Bob Filner was going to resign and dialogue about an upcoming special mayoral election on the Democratic side was to put forward a candidate that could beat either former San Diego City Councilmember Carl DeMaio or San Diego City Councilmember Kevin Faulconer.   

Former California State Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher, who had run and failed in the last mayoral election, was now being touted around town as the savior of the left by some state and federal elected officials, as well as big Democratic donors as the only one that could win the special mayoral election.  He was the one!  This banter was to take him even over a true tested Democrat elected with name id, fundraising ability, proven mayoral leadership and solid Democratic credentials, California State Assemblymember Toni Atkins.  Remember, Assemblymember Atkins steered the city the last time a mayor resigned.  The theory regarding former Assemblymember Fletcher was he had name identification, polls showed him ahead of “Dirty DeMaio” and “No Name ID Kevin”, as well as he had brought in big fundraising numbers in his last failed mayoral attempt and he was just swell on the stump.  Those points were regardless of the facts that former Assemblymember Fletcher had switched his party registration three times in about a year and half, lost most of his support from the right which he was still touting as him being able to be a consensus maker, while disavowing his previous held public policy positions and voting record.  Also, when he was truly tested in a heated campaign he crumbled or some would say never lived up to the hype in the last mayoral primary.  These new boosters of former Assemblymember Fletcher billed him as the savior on the left.  Funny, just in the 2012 mayoral election, he was billed as the true savior on the right from “Dirty DeMaio”.

The latest polls are coming out, after we have gotten into the thick of a real campaign.  Voters have been hearing the positives, the negatives, the endorsements of elected officials and organizations.  Big money has been spent and we can expect some more money still to come into play.  Under the pressure of a campaign, former Assemblymember Fletcher has shown yet again his well-developed image and the storyline of the campaign he and others touted does not stand-up.  There are various public and even internal polls, including his own I understand that all show former Assemblymember Fletcher dropping now below Councilmember Faulconer.  In fact, they all have him neck and neck with San Diego City Councilmember David Alvarez.  Those in the Fletcher campaign want to point fingers outside of their own campaign and cast blame onto others, but a true assessment is on his campaign and their supportive independent expenditures.  Nothing is a sure bet going into a campaign, but you need to make the best of what you have at hand.  The tails of endorsements, money, name identification and cross party appeal does not seem to be materializing for him.

The election is not over yet and polls are not always right at forecasting the election, but it seems like what the storyline of this knight riding a stallion in shining armor to rescue all of us on the left is looking more like after all the horn blowing, drummers and fanfare, he is just maybe a pimply guy on a colt with a spray-on tan missing the target and falling off his horse.  Only time will tell, the election results this election night!

When is campaigning, mudslinging?

There has always been debate; this special election cycle is no different, in the media and now amongst social media about dirty campaigning.  We are again abuzz and aghast with the campaign mail hitting homes, websites popping up, Facebook posts and parody twitter accounts from candidates, independent expenditures and political activists challenging certain things as crossing the line as attacks, going negative, slinging mud and dirty politics.  How dare you sir!

Going back to early United States history you see the mudslinging from some of our most distinguished and cherished elected officials.  It was never pretty.  My point is whether attacks are really mudslinging is in the eyes of the beholder.  For the attacker, they will claim they are only exposing the side of the candidate voters should be aware.  Just reaching back to our last mayoral election we hear from insiders and outsiders, “Why didn’t anyone tell us about former Mayor Bob Filner?”  Umm, that would be a charge of mudslinging, right?  What rises to the level of presenting the facts about a candidate or mudslinging?  The only answer I can see is depends from where you stand; making it or receiving it. 

Another interesting angle is when one slings mud claiming it is the guise of casting the light on another’s mudslinging.  A negative on a negative, classic!  I had to hand it to the independent expenditure supporting former Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher, they did the negative on the negative and went one step further, showed a photo of him and his family with mud splatters on them.  The mailer suggested the attacks they were defending were on the whole Fletcher family. No one has ever made any attacks on his family, but just the candidate.

In the end, the candidate needs to stand on their record, the good and the bad.  Those snarky comments by supporters of a candidate crying foul need to be judged on not how they respond to when their candidate is attacked, but how they respond when their candidate or the independent expenditure in support of their candidate attacks the others as well.  Mud will fly this election cycle, if you aren’t being hit, then you are throwing it. Splat!

What once is no longer, or was it ever really?

We have all read over the years about former Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher’s (R-75) ability to broker “The Deal” or bring sides together.  He was able to bring Republicans and Democrats together at the table to make “the deal”, break gridlock, create compromise in a broken down Sacramento world.  Looking at the repeated statements a little closer did then Republican Assemblymember Nathan Fletcher really make the deals possible?  Hmm

What really needs to be understood is the Democrats had almost a Super Majority and at minimum a majority.  In Sacramento, it didn’t take much to get something past, even when the Republicans stood in lock step opposition to it. You had a Democratic majority.  However, when you needed a few Republican votes they were usually around to be picked up.  It just needed for a deal to be made.  As former Speaker Willie Brown showed us when he kept his own speakership.  Remember, no one in Sacramento did anything for nothing; there was a deal and both sides gained something out of it.

This deal maker, the then Republican Assemblymember Fletcher was just selling something for something else and never really brought many Republicans, if any to the table from then his own party and as time rolled on, he had less success in bringing any other Republican to the table at all for a deal, besides himself.  Though, he got his from the deal, regardless.

Now, after the transformation from former Republican Assemblymember Fletcher, to Independent Assemblymember Fletcher in his loss in the last mayoral campaign, a year later he changed to a Democrat.   He is still making the claim, as well as his supporters; he can make the deal, bring people from opposing sides together and make the city work from its partisan gridlock. Not sure the partisan gridlock he speaks of, but let’s go with his narrative.  Sadly, since he is no longer a Republican, he no longer can bring any Republicans along.  You look at his current mayoral campaign and you don’t see any of his former Republican elected officials standing with him, you don’t see any of his former Republican big contributors standing with him, you don’t see any of his Republican endorsers, you don’t see any of his former Republican staffers standing with him, really you just don’t see him bringing anyone from his former Republican life to the campaign.  Rather, he is surrounded with the handful of swing voters from his last campaign, but mainly its all Democrats who he made deals with along the way.  He got something, they got something.  There is nothing wrong with people he made something happen for and they made something happen for him supporting each other.  My point is this, the image former Assemblymember Fletcher as the deal maker bringing people together was a great story, but like many stories it has come to an end and the more we re-read his story we see the errors in it.

The truth is if former Assemblymember Fletcher was not in the race, his support would have gone with Councilmember David Alvarez or they would have sat out of the race.  Maybe a few checks would have gone with Councilmember Kevin Faulconer, but just a handful at most. He isn’t drawing a middle of the road coalition and his storyline shows it.

The End

If so, then why were you not at Regulatory Relief Day?

Last night the City of San Diego held its first Regulatory Relief Day in a very long time. Businesses and residents came out to talk about how the city could improve their processes to help business. Business organizations have been overrunning everyone's in-boxes to turnout. It was billed as a major step for the City of San Diego to stimulate business, create new jobs, improve government and allow our economic base in the region to grow.

The economy has been front page issue from the national level all the way down to the local level. The political parties have been on all the stations on why their party is the party that is serious about turning around our government.

When it was time to show it is important here in San Diego, where the rubber hits the road, it is a little ironic Tony Krvaric, chair of the San Diego County Republican Party, and supposed business advocate instead of showing up to Regulatory Relief Day at San Diego City Hall to offer his supposed good ideas to turn around the city is instead hosting a political party money making stunt across town, asking people to pay to vote in a straw poll. Where were all his big ideas he has waited so long for a council to docket a meeting of this type for him to speak on improving City of San Diego? Serious business advocates showed up at the hearing.

So, the next time Krvaric tweets, Facebook status updates, blogs or talks to a reporter about how he really is so concerned about the state of our economy, businesses and the problems with government regulations, then your first question to him should be: If so, then why were you not at Regulatory Relief Day?

Thanks Bonnie!

This latest twist in the Dumais for Mayor saga of her flip flopping on the 401(k) initiative shows that when you're about 10 months out she's already reached the ceiling of her campaign. She can't money, she can't get support so why not change the campaign direction and now go to the right and see if that frees up something. However, she's boxed herself in because now she can't go after any more Democrats for money or votes at this point and she has ceded that to Bob. She's also ceded Public Safety as well to Bob if they look around and say "Hey, once they do that, wouldn't they go after me?" which is very possible. As the three Republicans try to fight it out amongst themselves, each being a fading copy of the other. This leaves Bob as the true alternative to all three and has now made clear who would be the real candidate for changing City Hall. So thanks Bonnie! You have just made life a lot easier...

NewsFlash: The election is 16 months away...

So with the election only 16 months away we already have a winner in the San Diego Mayor's race. Even though there have been no mailers, no commercials, no precient walks, no debates, no anything. The situation is so dire that only Donna can save us!

16 months is an eternity in politics. Especially in this City. I mean in December 2002, this guy was saying he owned city hall and that Dick Murphy and Michael Uberuaga had to go through him to get anything done in Council and what happened more than a year later? Please see link above.

This is going to be a hard long slog and we don't know what will happen and those saying who has a lock and who doesn't all have a short term memory. I mean look at Mark Penn and the national political establishment who 16 months before the election were already talking about who Hillary would put in her Cabinet. Last time I checked, this guy won.

Defeatist Democrats

Please Join

Mayor Jerry Sanders

For a Kick-off Event

To support

Bonnie Dumanis

San Diego County District Attorney

And her San Diego Mayoral campaign

Tuesday, June 28^th

5:30-7:30p.m.

Suggested Contribution ~ $150 minimum

Host Level ~ $500

Endorsers &

Host Committee

Hon. Lynn Schenk

Sheriff Bill Gore
Supervisor Ron Roberts

Councilmember Kevin Faulconer

Mayor Cheryl Cox,

Chula Vista

Councilmember Dave

Roberts, Solana Beach

Hon. Bill Kolender

Hon. Greg Smith

Hon. Barbara Warden

Hon. Casey Gwinn

Mary Ball

Gerald Blank &

Mary Barranger

Vincent Bartolotta

Eve Benton

Laurie Black

Catherine Blair

Lynn Bruser

David Casey, Jr.

Morris Casuto

Jerry Coleman

Judy Copeland

Patrick Daniels

Kevin Tilden &

Philip Diamond, M.D.

Laura Jo Galinson &

Jane Fantel

Edward L. Fike

Murray & Elaine

Galinson

Beth Gwinn

Lynne Heidel

Ric Horda

Bertrand Hug

William Johnson

Donna Jones

Kitty Juniper

Samuel & Suzanne

Kahn

Linda Katz

Richard A. Katz

Cheryl Kendrick

Mitchell & Lynn

Lathrop

Richard Ledford

Jerrilyn Malana

Marla Marshall

Robert A. McNeely

Anthony Napoli

Bob Nelson

Barry & Denise Nussbaum

Scott Paine

Lorne Polger

Conrad Prebys

Larry & Cathy

Richman

Lynne Robbins

Joseph Roiha

Heather Rosing

Frederick Schenk

Bobbie Spoon

Kelly Spoon

Gael Strack

John & Sally Thornton

Chris Van Gorder

Lisa Sanders &

Meaghan Yaple

Mike Zarbo

I received this e-mail today for the Bonnie Dumanis fundraiser next week and couldn't help but notice a lot of high profile Democrats on her host committee. Now if this was 1981, I would understand because San Diego was very different back then and being a Dem in San Diego was like being Vegan in Omaha or a Republican in San Francisco. So I could understand that "go along, get along" mentality.

But it's 2011 and San Diego is a Democratic city. Thanks to demographics and outstanding outreach efforts from the Republican party like this and this. Oh and this, this and this and well I could go all day on that. However, even Republicans understand this shift which is why they are fighting City redistricting tooth and nail.

Yet these people think that if the Downtown establishment supports someone they are a surefire winner and maybe they can get some scraps after the victory buffet. And who cares that there are two very well qualified Democratic candidates like Bob Filner and Christine Kehoe. And who cares that Christine Kehoe and Bob FIlner were ardent supporters of LGBT rights when it wasn't cool and was dangerous. It's all about a backing a winner.

This kind of self defeating attitude is why the Republicans win. I don't care how many times John Kern keeps telling people that Bonnie's really a Democrat. In the end she is a Republican and so are you, John. So unless she re-registers it's a load of crap.

And for those of you who are buying this crap and then when you bitch about why Bonnie voted against you if she becomes Mayor. Why don't you look in the mirror and thank yourself for screwing up the City even more.